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It's not very hard to rig a game of Blackjack so that the casino enjoys a larger-than-normal advantage over the players. Luckily, since Blackjack is a game of pure mathematics, it's also easy to catch someone who is doing it.
The Dealer's 'ending hand' is the first thing to look at if you're trying to figure out of a game is rigged. If the player has not busted, surrendered or received a BJ, record the dealer's final result and keep track of how many blackjacks the Dealer racks up. Normally a Dealer ends up with 20 about 7.4% of the time. So if you play 1000 hands of BJ, the Dealer should end with 20 about 74 times, plus or minus an "honest" variance. But if the Dealer ends with 20 on 108 out of 1000 hands, then it's very likely a rigged game, especially if the same percentages repeat themselves in a follow-up trial.
Here are the expected percentages for an average game of Blackjack when the dealer stands on A-6:
17-14.6%
18-13.8%
19-13.5%
20- 17.6%
21- 7.4%
BJ- 4.8%
Bust-28.4%
Another easy way to cheat is to remove from play certain cards that benefit the players, such as 10s and Aces. If you suspect a game might be rigged, keep track of each card that appears as the hands are played to make sure they are being shown in proper proportion. It should not matter of the deck shuffles after every hand, because the proportions should remain the same.
Here is a list of cards from a game of 7500 hands and the time they were seen:
Ace/3345
2/3222
3/3257
4/3215
5/3340
6/3243
7/3270
8/3312
9/3317
10, J, Q, K/13330
It's easy to track the number of "blackjacks" the player and Dealer get, so they are worth recording if they occur on the first two cards. Here are the probabilities of a 'natural' in various games:
1 Desk: 4.8265%
2 Decks: 4.7797%
4 Decks: 4.7566%
6 Decks: 4.7489%
8 Decks: 4.7451%
To find out if the Dealer is getting more Blackjacks than normal, figure out the "expectation" (0.048 x 1000), which is 48. The square root of 48 is 6.92, rounded up to 7. This is the standard deviation. Whenever the Dealer's BJs add up to 7 over "expectation", that's equal to one standard deviation point, which is normal. However, anything over 3 standard deviation points is seriously iffy, and 4 is a huge warning sign. So, if the Dealer receives 75 naturals within a 1000 hands, it's safe to say cheating is involved.
Record your data, such as the Dealer's ending hands and the number of naturals dealt both to you and the Dealer, and you'll soon be able to divine for yourself whether a game is honest or not. Its wise to take the emotion out of playing, as it makes the gun more fun and, possibly, more profitable in the long run. |
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