The biggest problem with Video Poker games is that it requires millions of hands of play to realize the expected statistics. Since Royal Flushes are supposed to occur once every 40,000 hands on average, even a sample of 100,000 hands is not enough to corroborate whether a game is honest or not. However, you can verify a game's fairness by checking the frequency of the far more common hands, such as Flushes and Full Houses.
In 9/6 Jacks or Better, a player utilizing the proper playing strategy can look forward to a Full House about once every 87 hands. In a sample of 1000 hands, the player should see 11 Full Houses, given statistical variations. Since 1 in 87 is a probability of 0.0119 (1 divided by 87), calculate the square root of that, which is 0.1072, multiply it by the square root of the number of hands played (the square root of 1000 is 31.62) and you end up with 3.239. This number is the Standard Deviation.
Since 95% of all results will fall within 2 Standard Deviations (assuming an honest game), you could expect to see at least a minimum of 4 Full Houses in 1000 hands and still be within acceptable limits. A quick way to do this calculation is to figure the square root of the expectation (11.5, so it's 3.4) and use that as one Standard Deviation. If you're more than 2 Standard Deviations below your "expected value", you should be concerned. If you are beyond 3 Standard Deviations, quit the game.
While checking a variety of hands, like Two-Pair, Flushes, etc. is a good gauge of a game's fairness, you should also keep track of the cards that are played. In Joker Poker, you should expect to see the Joker, on average, once every 53 cards. If either the ending hands or the frequency of each card fall beyond the 2 Standard Deviations level, check another 1000 hand trial to verify the data. If the second run does not bring the data back into line, then you are dealing with a rigged game.
If you have concerns about an online casino's VP games, collect data from at least 1000 hands of play. Keep track, by type (high pair, trips, etc.), of every hand you end with that pays out. From that, you can calculate the "non-pay" hands and get an idea of what's going on with the Full House and lower hands. While this might not be enough to draw any hard conclusions, it will at least give you peace of mind regarding the fairness of the games you have chosen to play. There is no reason to play at a casino that has aroused your suspicions. So remember: trust but verify. |
